Avoiding Contagion

‘Contagion Spreads in Emerging Markets as Crises Grow’: That was a recent headline on Bloomberg, reflecting a spate of articles about a rocky start to the year in some developing economies. But haven’t we been here before? Emerging markets historically have delivered higher returns than the markets of rich world economies like the USA, the […]

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The Golden Ticket Trap

In a popular children’s story, the young hero pins all his hopes on finding one of a handful of ‘golden tickets’ hidden among millions of candy bars. It seems many people approach investing the same way. The notion that the path to long-term wealth is in locating secret and previously undiscovered treasures in the global […]

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Many Happy Returns

It’s that time of the year when the talking heads of television and the prognosticators of print issue their sage outlooks for the coming 12 months. While this crystal ball gazing is always entertaining, it becomes even more so a year later. In journalism, this is known as the ‘silly season’. Lots of people are […]

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Efficient Markets: The Practical View

The recent awarding of the Nobel Prize in economics to Professor Eugene Fama has sparked some criticism of his theory of efficient markets. Debate is a good thing, but it is always advisable to start with the right definitions. Fama’s ‘efficient markets hypothesis’ is a model of how markets behave. It was developed back in […]

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