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If some of the smartest people in the world work in financial markets, as is often suggested, why are their forecasts so unreliable? Perhaps the problem starts with the idea that intelligence is related to the ability to correctly and consistently predict the movements of markets and individual securities. A number of factors explain why [...]

The surge in stock prices around the world in the first quarter serves as a reminder that predicting market trends can be a frustrating business. Six months ago, the outlook for stock prices appeared to be fading from grim to grimmer: Congressional leaders were wrangling unsuccessfully to craft a deficit reduction plan, Standard & Poor’s [...]

‘And you thought 2011 was tough?’ So went the headlines in December as media and market pundits, reflecting on a miserable year, saw no respite for investors in 2012. But markets have a funny way of confounding expectations. To be sure, the reasons to be anxious were piling high as the year turned, with European [...]

As a topic of conversation, investment is like sports. Everyone has an opinion. And the strongest opinions often come from those who spend more time in front of the TV than out on the pitch. Practitioners, meanwhile, are wary of anything labeled a sure thing. Indeed, it’s one of life’s ironies that the people who [...]